Bank scale of wealth management channel Banking: 13 trillion trust: 12 trillion stocks: The total circulation value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks is about 30 trillion. According to the proportion of investor structure announced by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, individual investors account for about 2 To 40%, the proportion of individual investors in Shenzhen is higher than that of Shanghai, and the stock holding value of individual investors is calculated to be about 10 trillion. Fund: refers to public funds, the latest data is about 4.5 trillion. Private Equity Fund: According to the statistics of the fund industry association, the private placement size of the registration is about 2.4 trillion. If the management assets of the brokerage and fund company subsidiaries are added, the scale exceeds 12 trillion, but the proportion of individual investors lacks data. . P2P: The latest in the industry, relatively reliable data shows that the size of P2P is between 1000-200 billion. Characteristics of the six financial channels 1. Investment of bank wealth management products The investment of bank wealth management products is generally short-term corporate financing (such as commercial paper, etc.). According to internationally accepted rules, such assets can be classified into cash assets (to High credit rating bonds within one year of the date). Characteristics (1) It can be seen from the investment of funds that the risk of bank wealth management products is low, especially for products that the bank promises to protect the capital, and usually can get back the principal and income. (2) Has a fixed period: from a short 7 days to 3 months, half a year, no withdrawal is allowed in the middle. (3) The level of return is the level of cash assets, which is relatively low. The appropriate benchmark is the interest rate level of the same period of interbank offered rate. The current annualized rate of return is between 4.5-5.5%. The longer the term, the higher the rate of return. (4) The investment threshold is generally 50,000. Risk points (1) Although most bank wealth management products can redeem the principal and income, there are often cases where the actual income is lower than expected. (2) Liquidity problem: Once the product starts to operate, it is difficult to realize it before it expires. (3) Due to the limited duration, investors need to continuously roll in, so bank wealth management products are not suitable as long-term investment tools. (4) Investors need to distinguish between capital preservation and non-guaranteed wealth management products. Non-guaranteed wealth management products are invested in a variety of funds, and some invest in high-risk assets such as large commodities or foreign exchange, which are not suitable for ordinary capital-guaranteed investors. Suitable for short-term cash management, and fixed-term investors 2. Trust money is invested in trust products, so-called “shadow banks”, that is, the capital demand side bypasses the bank and directly borrows money from investors. A project on a financing platform (such as demolition) or a company's funding needs (such as a new production line). These financiers generally consider the trust after the other funds are exhausted, because the interest on the trust loan is very high. From the perspective of the borrower, the annual interest rate is generally 20% or higher, compared to bank loans. The cost is much lower. Characteristics (1) According to the term and the borrower's conditions, the expected rate of return of the trust plan is different, and the current annual rate of return is roughly between 10% and 15%. The trust plan yield can refer to the private lending index, which reflects the public borrowing cost of the most developed areas of private lending, which reflects the cost paid by the borrower, on the basis of which the trust issuer and channel income are deducted. Generally around 5%), it is the investor's income. (2) The minimum starting point for a compliant trust product is 1 million. Products below this threshold are mostly funded to buy such a ball (that is, many people give money to a person to buy). (3) The term is generally 1-3 years, and it is generally impossible to withdraw from the middle. Risk points (1) Most of the trust financing channels will promote the so-called “rigid redemption”. That is, investors will definitely get the cost and interest, but in fact this is unfounded. At the beginning of the 13th year, there have been cases in which rigid redemption has been partially broken. In October last year, the State Council issued the "Opinions on Local Debt Management", clearly stating that the central government will not repay the debts for the local government, and the amount of trust issuance has dropped significantly. For the expectant investors of “rigid redemption”, it is necessary to maintain the possibility of breaking rigid payments as the local financing behavior and the real estate industry are cleaned up. (2) It is not difficult to conclude from the direction of trust funds. Trust borrowers generally have two characteristics: First, they have high debts (other low-cost financing channels are exhausted and need to rely on trust as a high-cost channel); Trust loans are subject to high interest expenses. In professional terms, this type of business has a high debt leverage (Leverage) and a tight capital chain. Therefore, trusts are essentially High Yield Bonds, also known as junk bonds. (3) The act of raising funds to purchase the trust further magnifies the risk. Since there is only one person in the actual purchase contract, and many other fund raisers are not legally recognized beneficiaries of the trust plan, once the purchaser runs, the fundraiser’s It is difficult to guarantee. Suitable for high-net-worth investors with high risk tolerance and sufficient risk-handling ability (such as the need to file a lawsuit) can properly configure the trust plan in the portfolio. Raising funds to buy trusts is a very risky behavior, and investors should stay away. 3. The investment of stock money If you are subscribed when the company first issued shares (IPO), then your money is directly paid to the company; later you buy stocks from other investors, the money does not enter the company Pocket, but since you got the shares, it is reasonable to say that you bought a part of the company's assets. Features (1) Uncertain income, and huge fluctuations, needless to say. (2) Uncertain investment period: You can hold one day or N years. (3) Lower participation threshold: Generally, you can buy stocks for hundreds of dollars. (4) The real requirements for investors are high: knowledge, psychology, operation, etc., but it seems simple on the surface. Risk points (1) For ordinary investors, the biggest risk of stocks is “you don’t know the risks”, most peopleTrading is because other people are buying or selling, or based on so-called news, and this kind of follow-up investment ends up with a loss. (2) Due to the low capital threshold of the stocks, the large number of participants, and various non-stop speculations, have a huge psychological impact and pressure on investors. Regarding the description of investor psychology, the best piece I have seen is the “investor's surrender” written by Oaks Capital founder Howard Marks. Suitable for all of the money, it is too radical for most people. Because you can't judge when it's low, when is the high point, or the message is actually a very fragile wishful thinking. A 30% decline is commonplace in the stock market. Even though various indicators reflect that the stock is almost in the end, the market may continue to fall by 20%. For follow-up investors, it may face a decline of more than 50%. From a time perspective, you may face a constant psychological burden of years of loss. The investor’s attitude towards the stock is not Yes or No, but some funds are reasonably allocated to the stock. If you are not sure of the “winning field”, then it is a good idea to choose the fund of the field index; if you are sure that you have the ability Winning the field, then your strategy is to circumvent the fund, choose your own stock to distinguish whether you have this ability, it is very simple, you take a small part of the funds to try. In a letter to investors in 2013, Buffett said: "For my heirs, my share of money is divided into two, 10% is placed in short-term national debt, and the remaining 90% is placed in low-cost index funds. I I believe that this will be stronger than most investors in the long run.” 4. The investment of the base money is different according to the type of fund. The investor’s money is invested in different assets, equity funds, stocks, bond funds, bonds, and currencies. The fund is mainly the depositable fund's investable objects covering most of the above bank wealth management, trust, stock market, so the fund can be used as an alternative to the previous investment channels, we will compare one by one. Comparison (1) Bank wealth management products vs. money funds In the past, the irregularity of the market made people have the illusion that the trust would not lose money. As the investment changes, this expectation will be gradually broken. The trust will gradually return to the high-risk, high-return end of bond investment; instead of the current low-risk, high-return distortion. (3) The risk of the stock & itself is actually much smaller than this. (2) The sales organization re-sells, and the status quo of light service has intensified the behavior of investors to follow suit. Suitable for the fund The fund is an ideal tool for ordinary investors to make long-term investments, provided that there is a systematic scientific plan. 5. Private Equity Funds The investment of money is the same as the public funds mentioned above. Private equity funds also give money to fund managers for management, and invest according to different investment direction strategies of the fund. Features (1) The scope of investment is very wide, and almost everything can be invested: from stocks and bonds to equity in the company (so-called equity private equity funds), financial derivatives (oil, gold futures), real estate, infrastructure projects (2 Investment strategies are richer and more complex than public funds. (3) In addition to receiving a fixed management fee, the fund also receives a performance commission. (4) Investment thresholds are similar to trusts, generally starting from a million. (5) There is a long investment lock-up period (usually more than one year), the period cannot be quit, and the lock-out period is periodically withdrawn (usually once a month). Risk points (1) It is difficult for non-professional investors to truly understand the investment strategy of private equity funds. Therefore, it is difficult to judge whether the investment is appropriate or not. It is the only means for most investors to rely solely on the past historical performance of the manager. The disclosure of information on private equity funds is not standardized, so private equity investors are at a greater information disadvantage than public funds. (2) The ability to realize the liquidity of private equity products (liquidity) is poor. In addition to the long lock-up period, there are also punitive early withdrawal clauses. When investors find that the fund performance is not as good as expected, they often cannot withdraw or suffer losses. The premise of suitable investment in private equity funds: (1) have large investable financial assets (for example, more than 10 million); (2) strictly screen private equity managers, and put some funds into private equity funds on the premise of reasonable asset allocation. . 6. P2P online loans The whereabouts of money P2P online lending is the Internet financing model that has gradually emerged in the last two years. Most online loans use the "bid" method to collect investors' money online and lend to companies or individuals with capital needs through the P2P platform. Some P2P borrowers are eligible for personal consumption (eg renovation, car...). The other part is a small business turnover. Features (1) Single transaction is small and scattered (2) The period is mostly from a few months to one year. (3) The agreed rate of return refers to the trust, which is generally 8%-15% per year. Risk point (1) The transaction is entirely on the Internet. Due to the small amount of single borrowing, the P2P platform lacks an effective low-cost method to conduct risk assessment on the borrower's qualification one by one. The possibility of default is not as low as expected. There are zero risks advertised by some platforms. (2) Approximate pure credit loan model, investors and platforms lack substantial defense against borrowers. (3) The platform itself is not properly regulated at present. In the event of a serious loan default, the platform itself may fail. In fact, the P2P platform has been running since last year. Appropriate for the object The credit of the P2P platform itself is more important than the credit of the borrower. Before the P2P is not standardized, investors who do not have the ability to identify need to be cautious.